John's Blog

When confronted by conflicting evidence, we can either update our beliefs or categorize such evidence as an anomaly, rare, or untrue. We tend to do the latter.

How do you know the event was rare?

To help you decide whether to believe someone, consider the reputational cost they would face if they believed something else, particularly the opposite thing. If their status, reputation, or livelihood is based on a certain belief, they are incentivized against espousing anything that would contradict such view.

Do whatever, just do it consciously.

When on vacation at a place that is not your home, you won’t sleep in. You’ll have to catch up on your sleep when you get back.

There are no cure-alls, just help-somes.

The problem with working hard is that you think the world owes you something.